Challenge
Our World is gaining exponentially in speed and complexity.
That makes everyone's life more interesting, but also difficult. Even the politicians of all countries seem to have less and less a grasp on where we are and what they should do.
Since I currently live in Germany, I looked at our situation and the policy proposals of our currently elected government: the coalition of SPD, FDP and Green party.
Idea
Benchmark the 178-page government program of our current legislation period 2021-2025 with a set of the best, openly available, most diverse and respected analyses, insights and studies, e.g. from McKinsey, The Spiegel, Seth Godin, Ray Dalio, Pip Kloeckner, Peter Zeihan, Eric Joergenson, Frog/Capgemini, Backlash/TBWA, Trustbarometer/Edelman, etc.
Engineered prompt to copy & paste into your LLM
Act like the world’s best and most creative geopolitical analyst, policymaker and strategist.
1. Analyse all PDFs that have filenames starting with „Analysis_and_ideas_“ to understand what our world’s status quo is and get some ideas on how to best deal with our current problems.
2. Compare the political proposal from the German government outlined in the file "German_Government_Coalition_Roadmap_2021-2015.pdf“ with the information from all other PDFs.
3. Create your assessment for each of the German government's policy proposals.
4. Format your answers for each policy assessment like this:
<<Name of German policy>>
<<Explain what the German government proposes in 1 sentence>>
<<Explain your POV, rationale and assessment in 1 paragraph>>
<<Rate how good you think the German policy suggestion is from 1 worst to 10 best>>
<<Project and explain the potential consequences if Germany sticks to this policy in one paragraph>>
<<Suggest how to improve this German policy 1 sentence>>
<<Name 1 specific best-case example of another country>>
<<Create 1 specific idea that you come up with in 1 sentence>>
Recommendations
Adjust my prompt example by feeding it your own trustworthy data – and IMHO try to use as many different, unbiased and quality sources as possible.
You (and I) can vastly increase the quality and specificity of the AI LLM output by investing more time into formatting, structuring and improving the input data. Since this is a just-for-fun and experimental post for LinkedIn, I decided to not invest more than half a day in searching and gathering from about 12 different sources. Then, editing around 600 pages of various studies, keynotes, etc. And finally writing my prompt, which you saw above. I'm sure this topic offers a lot of opportunities for interesting and insightful exploration.
Contact me for a tailor-fit prompt that creates the best AI & LLM results.
Quick links
Claude V2 output (best & only LLM that could handle input)
Here are my assessments for each of the German government's policy proposals:
1. Climate Action
The German government proposes to accelerate the expansion of renewable energies and phase out coal by 2030.
While phasing out coal by 2030 is a positive step, accelerating renewable energy alone is likely insufficient to meet Germany's climate goals in time. Phasing out coal should be accompanied by reductions in oil and gas consumption, increased energy efficiency, and policies to reduce energy demand across sectors. Electrification of transport, industry, and buildings will also be key. The focus should not just be on energy supply, but also managing demand.
Rating: 5/10
If Germany simply replaces coal with renewables without addressing energy demand, it risks falling short of its targets and facing higher costs. Policies should aim to reduce energy demand through efficiency and conservation.
Suggestion: Include demand-reduction policies like building retrofits and incentives for EVs.
Example: California's energy efficiency programs have kept per capita electricity consumption flat since the 1970s.
Idea: Consider national policies to encourage lower energy use, like Japan's energy saving push after Fukushima.
2. Digitalization
The German government wants to use digitalization to modernize the state and economy.
While digitalization offers opportunities, it also poses risks like job displacement and growing inequality that must be proactively managed. Policies should ensure digitalization benefits all of society.
Rating: 6/10
If benefits accrue only to certain segments of society, digitalization risks worsening inequality and distrust. Policies must ensure digitalization works for all.
Suggestion: Couple digitalization with workforce training, access programs, and oversight.
Example: Denmark's digital strategy focuses on human needs and ethics.
Idea: Create a public-private partnership on digital ethics and job retraining.
3. Infrastructure
The German government wants to accelerate infrastructure development.
Investing in sustainable infrastructure is wise, but projects should focus on decarbonization and resilience instead of highways. Public transit, EV charging, electricity transmission, and climate adaptation should be prioritized over roads.
Rating: 5/10
Road building could induce traffic, emissions, and sprawl without improving mobility. Sustainable, low-carbon infrastructure is needed instead.
Suggestion: Shift highway funds towards rail, charging, transmission, and adaptation projects.
Example: Spain’s recovery plan allocates over a third of transport funds to railways.
Idea: Link federal transport funding to climate and equity metrics.
4. Housing
The German government aims to increase housing construction.
Germany needs more housing supply, but sustainability and affordability should be emphasized over market-driven development. New construction should prioritize dense, public transit-oriented, mixed-income, net zero carbon housing.
Rating: 6/10
Without guiding principles, higher supply could still be unaffordable, inaccessible, and resource-intensive. Sustainability and equity should shape new housing policies.
Suggestion: Tie new construction to sustainability standards and affordable set-asides.
Example: Vienna’s social housing requirements ensure affordable, quality homes.
Idea: Create low-carbon zoning incentives and affordable housing mandates.
5. Education
The German government wants to strengthen vocational training and increase educational achievement.
Improving vocational training and education levels is important, but curriculum should also teach critical thinking, empathy, sustainability, and digital literacy to ready youth for the future.
Rating: 7/10
Education shapes society's values. Beyond technical skills, curriculum should instill wisdom, ethics and systems thinking.
Suggestion: Include sustainability, ethics and systems thinking in requirements.
Example: New Zealand aims to provide young people with skills “to thrive in a digital age.”
Idea: Appoint a Council on Curriculum Innovation to plan for the future.
6. Economy and Jobs
The German government wants to ease regulatory burdens on businesses.
Regulatory easing may support growth in the short-term but environmental and social protections should not be compromised. The focus should be on sustainable industries and reskilling workers instead of deregulation.
Rating: 4/10
Deregulation risks environmental harm and worsening inequality. Transition support for workers and sustainable sectors is a better approach.
Suggestion: Focus on worker support and low-carbon sector growth instead of deregulation.
Example: Denmark's "right to retrain" law helps workers transition between careers.
Idea: Increase hiring subsidies for the renewable energy industry.
7. Research and Innovation
The German government wants to increase R&D spending to 3.5% of GDP by 2025.
Boosting R&D spending is wise, but efforts should focus on decarbonization, adaptation, circularity, and responsible innovation. More spending alone does not guarantee socially beneficial outcomes.
Rating: 7/10
Without guiding principles, R&D risks exacerbating problems like resource depletion and inequality. Public interest should steer innovation priorities.
Suggestion: Direct additional R&D towards sustainability challenges and ethics.
Example: The EU's Horizon research program sets rules and priorities for funding.
Idea: Create a German public interest research fund guided by an expert ethics panel.
8. Finance
The German government wants financial policies focused on stability.
Prioritizing financial stability is prudent, but policies should also enhance climate-related financial disclosures and prevent greenwashing. Aligning finance with sustainability is vital.
Rating: 6/10
Focusing only on stability risks perpetuating investment flows towards fossil fuels and stranded assets. Sustainability should be integral to financial policy.
Suggestion: Implement mandatory climate risk reporting and restrict greenwashing.
Example: New Zealand's climate reporting and labeling requirements for financial products.
Idea: Develop minimum ESG standards for financial products and services.
9. Social Cohesion
The German government wants to increase support for children, families and cultural programs.
Investing in children, families and culture provides crucial safety nets but should be paired with policies that address root causes of inequality like discrimination, unequal opportunity, and lack of access.
Rating: 6/10
Unless systemic gaps are addressed, social programs will only provide temporary relief. Real change requires tackling root causes.
Suggestion: Couple with anti-discrimination, education access, and workforce equity reforms.
Example: Iceland’s equal pay certification program helps tackle workplace gender inequality.
Idea: Provide grants for collaborative community projects bridging social divides.
10. Healthcare
The German government wants to increase healthcare funding and worker compensation.
Increasing healthcare funds and worker pay helps improve access and quality, but reforms should also address prevention, social determinants of health, and care integration. Systemic issues beyond funding must be tackled.
Rating: 7/10
Without addressing root causes, health problems will persist and costs will remain high. Holistic reforms are needed beyond just funding increases.
Suggestion: Emphasize preventative care, social factors, and coordinated care.
Example: Japan’s implementation of community-based integrated care systems.
Idea: Develop neighborhood health and wellness hubs offering preventative services.
11. Pensions
The German government wants to preserve pension levels and improve coverage for the self-employed.
Protecting pensions helps provide economic security but demographic challenges remain unaddressed. Policies should create more flexibility to extend working lives, such as allowing part-time work with partial pensions.
Rating: 6/10
With an aging society, sustaining the status quo postpones inevitable reforms. More adaptive policies are needed to cope with demographic headwinds.
Suggestion: Introduce flexible work and graduated pension options.
Example: Sweden indexes retirement age to life expectancy.
Idea: Allow part-time work combined with smaller pension payments.
12. International Order
The German government wants to strengthen the EU and multilateral cooperation.
Strengthening international cooperation and institutions is essential, but more commitments are needed on pressing issues like climate change, nuclear disarmament, emerging tech governance, and ethical guidelines for trade and development financing.
Rating: 7/10
While renewing institutions is good, it is insufficient without action on urgent global priorities. Stronger issue-specific leadership is still required.
Suggestion: Champion progressive stances on climate, disarmament, ethics, and reform.
Example: New Zealand’s international advocacy on climate change and social priorities.
Idea: Propose a Global Partnership for Peace and Progress.
13. Defense
The German government wants to increase defense spending above 2% of GDP.
Boosting defense spending is understandable given the Russian invasion of Ukraine, but military force alone cannot ensure security. More resources for diplomacy, development, and integration are needed to build lasting peace.
Rating: 4/10
While deterrence has value, true security requires addressing underlying drivers of conflict through diplomacy, aid, cooperation, and stronger institutions.
Suggestion: Balance new military investments with increased funding for humanitarian/development aid and research.
Example: Switzerland's civil defense-focused security policy.
Idea: Propose a pan-European security framework based on common economic and environmental interests.